Analyzing the Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Confirmed Cases and Deaths in Azerbaijan Using Machine Learning Algorithm

Full Text (PDF, 533KB), PP.1-10

Views: 0 Downloads: 0

Author(s)

Makrufa Sh. Hajirahimova 1,* Aybeniz S. Aliyeva 1

1. Institute of Information Technology of ANAS, City, AZ1141, Azerbaijan

* Corresponding author.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5815/ijeme.2022.01.01

Received: 14 Oct. 2021 / Revised: 9 Nov. 2021 / Accepted: 28 Nov. 2021 / Published: 8 Feb. 2022

Index Terms

Coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 pandemic, machine learning, k-means clustering.

Abstract

For almost two years, the world has been battling a global trouble- the COVID-19 pandemic. The disease, which has spread to about 225 countries around the world, has devastated the healthcare system of even the most developed countries.  Governments have found the only way out is to impose a strict quarantine regime and state of emergency. Scientists immediately began testing the vaccine. Vaccination would still be the only savior of the planet's inhabitants.Because many of these pandemic infections have exactly been prevented thanks to vaccines in the past. Although the reduction in the number of infections after strict quarantine measures allowed the restrictions to be eased, the next wave  was starting soon. This made it necessary the preparation of the vaccine as soon as possible. At the end of last year, the expected news came. Thus, in December 2020, the vaccination process has been launched in a number of countries. Azerbaijan is also one of the first countries to join the vaccination. The vaccination process, which began on January 18, 2021 continues, provided that 4 types of vaccines are available to the population. As a result of vaccination, the epidemiological situation in Azerbaijan is under control, as in many countries. In this article has been attempted to find a correlation between vaccination and COVID-19-confirmed cases and deaths. For this purpose, the k-means cluster-based machine learning method has been used in the Azerbaijan data collection obtained from the GitHub repository of the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. This research can benefit governments, stakeholders, and relevant institutions in the health care sector in monitor the vaccination process and more detally assess the epidemiological situation , and make important decisions to control and manage the spread of the disease.

Cite This Paper

Makrufa Sh. Hajirahimova, Aybeniz S. Aliyeva, "Analyzing the Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Confirmed Cases and Deaths in Azerbaijan Using Machine Learning Algorithm", International Journal of Education and Management Engineering (IJEME), Vol.12, No.1, pp.1-10, 2022. DOI: 10.5815/ijeme.2022.01.01

Reference

[1] E. Mathieu, H. Ritchie, E. Ortiz-Ospina , M. Roser and et al,,” A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations “, Nature Human Behaviour, 2021, www.nathumbehav.com

[2] The World Health Organization, https://covid19.who.int/info

[3] Q. Li, X. Guan, P.Wu, X. Wan, "Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia," New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 382, no. 13, pp. 1-9, 2020, DOI:10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

[4] A. H. Mohammed Hassan, A. A. Mohammed Qasem, W. F. Mohammed Abdalla, O. H. Elhassan, "Visualization & Prediction of COVID-19 Future Outbreak by Using Machine Learning", International Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science(IJITCS), vol.13, no.3, pp.16-32, 2021. DOI: 10.5815/ijitcs.2021.03.02

[5] M.W. Hussain, T. Mirza, M. M. Hassan. " Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Human Behavior ", International Journal of Education and Management Engineering (IJEME), vol.10, no.5, pp.35-61, 2020. DOI: 10.5815/ijeme.2020.05.05

[6] A.Tobías, “Evaluation of the lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy and Spain after one month follow up”, Science of the Total Environment. vol. 725, 10 July 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138539

[7] D.Ibarra-Vega, “ Lockdown, one, two, none, or smart. Modeling containing covid-19 infection. A conceptual model”, Science of the Total Environment. vol. 730, 15 August 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138917

[8] B.Ambikapathy, K. Krishnamurthy, “Mathematical modeling to assess the impact of lockdown on COVID-19 transmission in India: Model development and validation”, JMIR Public Health Surveill., vol. 6, no.2., 2020.

[9] C.Violato, E.M,Violato, E.M.Violato, “Impact of the stringency of lockdown measures on covid-19: A theoretical model of a pandemic”, PLoS ONE , vol.16, no. 10, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258205

[10] T. T. Le, Z. Andreadakis, A. Kumar, R. G. Román, S. Tollefsen, M. Saville, and S. Mayhew, ‘‘The COVID-19 vaccine development landscape,’’ Nature Reviews Drug Discovery, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 305–306, 2020, doi: 10.1038/d41573-020-00073-5.

[11] Task Force or Operative Headquarter under Prime-Minister of the Republic of Azerbaijan, https://nk.gov.az/

[12] AZERTAC - Azerbaijan State News Agency, azertag.az

[13] ]https://koronavirusinfo.az/az

[14] F. Fukutani, M.L. Barreto, B.B. Andrade and A.. L. Queiroz, ”Correlation Between SARS-Cov-2 Vaccination, COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality: Tracking the Effect of Vaccination on Population Protection in Real Time”, Frontiers in Genetics, vol 12, pp.1-4, 2021.

[15] A. R. M. Hussein, M. R. Salem et al.,”Correlation between COVID-19 case fatality rate and percentage of BCG vaccination: is it true the vaccine is protective?”, The Egyptian Journal of Bronchology, vol. 14, no. 25, 2020.

[16] N. Andrews, M. J. Keeling, J. Stowe, Sh. Ismael, L. Coughlan, H. Allen, M. Ramsay, J. L. Bernal,”Impact of COVID-19 vaccines on mortality in England: December 2020 to February 2021”, Public Health England, March 2021, www.gov.uk/phe

[17] L.-Adrian Cotfas, C. Delcea, I. Roxin, C.Ioanăş, D.S. Gherai and F. Tajario, “The longest month: analyzing covid-19 vaccination opinions dynamics from tweets in the month following the first vaccine announcement”, IEEE Access, vol. 9, pp. 33203-33223, 2021, doi:10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3059821

[18] Alagoz O, Sethi AK, Patterson BW, Churpek M, Alhanaee G, Scaria E, et al., “The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach”, PLoS ONE, vol. 16, no. 7, pp. 1-12, 2021, https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254456

[19] Md. Zubair, A. Iqbal, A. Shil, E. Haque, M. M. Hoque, I.l H. Sarker, “An Efficient K-means Clustering Algorithm for Analysing COVID-19”, arXiv:2101.03140v1 [cs.LG] 21 Dec 2020.

[20] K. Siddiqui, R.Morales-Menendez, P.K.Gupta and et al., “Correlation Between Temperature and COVID-19 (Suspected, Confirmed and Death)Cases based on Machine Learning Analysis,” J Pure Appl Microbiol, vol. 14(suppl 1), pp. 1017-1024, May 2020.

[21] S. H. Sheikh Abdullah et al., “Clustering and Correlation Methods for Predicting Coronavirus COVID-19 Risk Analysis in Pandemic Countries”, 8th International Conference on Cyber and IT Service Management (CITSM), 23-24 Oct. 2020, Pangkal, Indonesia.K.

[22] S.A. Rizvi, M.Umair, M. A. Cheema, “Clustering of Countries for COVID-19 Cases based on Disease Prevalence, Health Systems and Environmental Indicators”, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 151 pp. 1-10, 2021.

[23] J. Hutagalung, N. L. W. Sri Rahayu Ginantra, G.W. Bhawika, W. G. Suka Parwita , A.Wanto, P. D. Panjaitan, “COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in Southeast Asia Clustering using K-Means Algorithm “, Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1783 (2021) 012027, IOP Publishing, doi:10.1088/1742-6596/1783/1/012027

[24] D.Abdullah, S.Susilo, A.S.Ahmar,R.Rusli and R.Hidayat, “The application of K-Means clustering for province clustering in Indonesia of the risk of the COVID-19 pandemic based on COVID-19 data”, Quality & Quantity, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-021-01176-w

[25] F. Virgantari and Y. E. Faridhan, “K-Means Clustering of COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia’s Provinces”, Iinternational journal of Eengineering and Natural science, vol. 5, no. 2, November 2020.

[26] Data on COVID-19 (coronavirus) by Our World in Data, https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data

[27] Understanding K-means Clustering in Machine Learning ( by Dr. Michael J. Garbade), Towards Data Science , Sep 13, 2018, https://towardsdatascience.com/k-means-clustering-in-machine-learning

[28] B. Rawat, S. K. Dwivedi, "Analyzing the Performance of Various Clustering Algorithms", International Journal of Modern Education and Computer Science(IJMECS), Vol.11, No.1, pp. 45-53, 2019.DOI: 10.5815/ijmecs.2019.01.06