Forest fires occur at various spots and various times all around the world. One of major efforts in forest fire management is to estimate the probability of occurrence of fires so that people would be better prepared to control those fires. In this paper, we establish a probability model and a numerical procedure for estimating probability of occurrences of large forest fires. A simulated numerical experiment is also presented to illustrate the application of the probability model and the numerical procedure.

In recent years, more and more attentions are given to developing problem solving skills and using computer technology in the teaching and learning of mathematics. Case studies, independent projects, and examples of applications of mathematics are used more and more frequently in mathematics classes in order to enhance students’ development in mathematical thinking and problem solving skills. Two examples of such studies are presented in this paper.